Bangkok, Secretary-General and Managing Director The Investment Analysts Association stated investment trends for the 2nd-4th quarter of 2024, with many factors turning positive, expecting the SET Index to end the year at 1,535 points, along with recommending stocks that support tourism that still have the opportunity to grow further and stocks of old basic infrastructure projects that are still in use. outstanding projects such as EEC, Airport Link, and deep sea ports, the government should continue to do them.
Mr. Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary-General and Managing Director The Investment Analysts Association mentioned the results of the survey of analyst opinions on investment trends in the 2nd quarter of 2024 that from the results of the survey of members of analysts and mutual fund managers from 24 agencies regarding investment perspectives in the 2nd-4th quarter of 2024. It can be summarized as follows: by the main assumptions This year’s average crude oil price is 82.36 USD per barrel, forecasting
the expansion of Thai GDP in 2024 from the original 3.33% (Jan. ’24) reduced to 2.80%. Risk Free Rate used in valuation. The average is 2.71% and the stock market’s Risk Premium is 8.13%.
The factors affecting investment direction until the end of 2024 are divided into positive factors. with more than 50% of the respondents voting, led by the direction of interest rates in the country United States interest rate direction and the domestic economy There were 83.33% of respondents. The second factor, 70.83%, voted for the company’s performance. Limited companies in 2024 followed by Fund Flows from abroad to the Thai stock market. and foreign economic factors including America, Europe, Asia, there were 66.67% of respondents respectively.
As for the negative factors The only factor that received more than 50% of the votes was the political factor in foreign countries. There were 62.50% of respondents. As for the prediction of the BoT’s policy interest rate at the end of 2024, there were the same 45.83% of analy
sts who expected it to be cut to 0.50. % and 0.25%, with 8.33% of respondents seeing that the market’s average net earnings per share (EPS) in 2024 is stable at 92.92 baht, downgraded from the previous survey, which was 95.62 baht per share, and expected that the average EPS Growth of 2024 is 14.31%. In terms of forecasting the direction of Thai stocks in the short term during the 2nd quarter, most expect it to trend in a positive direction. It will close at the end of the second quarter at 1447 points and when looking at the whole year. It will fluctuate in the range of 1329 to 1548 points, closing at the end of 2024 at 1535 points.
In addition, it is recommended to diversify the investment portfolio, divided into cash and short-term deposits, 8.33%. Comments on foreign investment are It is recommended to invest in US stock funds, especially in the technology sector and Selective Asia such as China, India, Korea, Vietnam. For investing in Thai stocks, It is recommended to increase the weight of investments
in the business category. Food and Drink Consumer products Capital/Securities construction contractor and tourism while reducing investment weight in the banking and insurance sectors.
However, the 4 stock agencies that have analyzed and recommended stocks that are worth continuing investment are AOT, which has benefited from a recovery in tourism. The BoT expects there will be 34.5 million tourists this year +22.6% and there is also a government measure for free visas, which AOT expects. Passengers this year +20% to 120 million and there is no measure to give discounts to operators. This year’s income is expected to be +39.6%. CK shares will benefit from the acceleration of government budget disbursement in 2024. Encourage more auctions for government projects after this. This year’s works waiting to be auctioned include: Khon Kaen-Nong Khai double track railway Chatuchot Expressway and Kathu-Patong Expressway, etc. In addition, in terms of costs, it was found that the construction materials index continued
to decline. CPALL shares mainly benefited from the increase in foreign tourists and economic stimulus from the government, and MINT shares benefited from The hotel business in Thailand and in Europe is growing well. Interest expense decreased The food business is recovering. Stocks that should be avoided include stocks whose fundamentals have greatly overvalued. and individual stocks with high borrowing burden/capital increase
In addition, I would like to recommend to the government policies that will have a positive effect on the economic situation. It is worth the budget. Especially both short-term and long-term measures. Separate into accelerating investment in infrastructure. Move forward with old basic infrastructure projects that are still pending, such as EEC, Airport Link, and deep-sea port. Next is assistance to the public sector. Reducing household debt burden Stimulate employment along with developing skilled labor and measures to increase purchasing power. (Shop to help the nation) that distribut
es usage times Not concentrated in too short a period of time and followed by policies to support tourism. Draw interest in tourism in secondary cities and expand the city, supporting FDI in target industries. Increase production limits Including moving the production base to Thailand and seeing that there is an opportunity at the end of the year that the policy interest rate will decrease. Including the trend of the baht value likely to strengthen in mid-April and there may be fluctuations during the rest of this year.
The Investment Analysts Association has summarized the highest point of the SET Index during April – December 2024 at an average of 1,548 points and expects that the index will reach a high point of 1,501 – 1,600 and a low point of 1,329 points. Investing in high-risk assets is recommended to be divided among foreign stocks or foreign stock funds, real estate funds / REITs, and gold and foreign stock investments. Foreign stock funds Recommend US stock funds, especially those in the technology
sector and Selective Asia such as China, India, Korea, Vietnam, etc.
Source: Thai News Agency