Bangkok: Academics say Thaksin's acquittal under Section 112 signals short-term political uncertainty. Academics point out that Thaksin's acquittal in the Section 112 case is only a short-term political signal, with economics and politics serving as long-term indicators. They emphasize the Prime Minister's audio clip case as the most significant political indicator.
According to Thai News Agency, Assoc. Prof. Yutthaporn Isarachai, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, addressed the Criminal Court's dismissal of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's charges of lese majeste under Article 112 of the Criminal Code and violations of the Computer Crimes Act 2017, stemming from an interview he gave with foreign media in 2015. He stated that this was part of a series of legal signals that will have short-term political implications. The first was the case of Prime Minister Paethongtarn Shinawatra's appearance at the Constitutional Court for an audio clip case, and the second was the dismissal of Thaksin's Article 112 case. The other signals were the court's expected verdict on August 29th in the audio clip case, and the court scheduled a verdict for September 9th in the case against Thaksin on the 14th floor. Many argue that from a legal perspective, these three signals are unrelated, representing different courts and d ifferent investigative systems. However, from a political perspective, they are all linked. Many people view the dismissal of the Section 112 charges as a positive signal for the Prime Minister's case and the Section 14 case, suggesting a deal has been reached. However, these are merely speculation and analysis, or sometimes mere imagination, which may or may not be true. Therefore, I cannot guarantee that these speculations will be true.
Assoc. Prof. Yutthaporn added that in the short-term, the aforementioned political signals are highly influential. In the medium and long term, other signals remain, such as economic signals, which people are awaiting to see when they will recover. Political signals include the government's slim majority, which will impact political stability and confidence. Furthermore, the Thai-Cambodian issue remains uncertain as to when it will erupt again. Furthermore, there are political signals being discussed, including the invocation of Sections 5 and 144, which could lead to the House of Representatives being reset to zero, which is a cause for concern. Therefore, there are likely to be many other political challenges and factors in the future.
As for which political case will send the clearest political signal, Mr. Yutthaporn said that he is giving the Constitutional Court the most weight to the audio clip case of Ms. Paethongtarn because it is a case that is a political action and is abstract in nature. It can be decided in any direction. Therefore, he is giving it a weight of 50/50, but leaning towards the one that has a high risk of being removed from office.