InnovestX Securities assesses that economic stimulus projects will support GDP growth in 2024 by 2.5%, expects the MPC to have a chance to cut interest rates by 1.0% in 2024 and 2025, indicates that the economy and investment are transitioning into a new era, recommends investing with caution, expects the SET Index to adjust up to touch 1,500 points by 2024 and 1,550 points in 2025.
InnovestX Securities, the flagship investment company under the SCBX Group, assesses the overall global economy and investment in the fourth quarter of 2024 as a transition period from the era of better-than-expected US economic growth, high inflation, tight monetary policy, and stable high interest rates to the era of the US economy starting to slow down again, with interest rates changing to a downward trend until 2025, including US economic and political policies. Things to watch in 2025 after the US presidential election results in November: Europe's economy is estimated to grow by 0.8% this year, less than the US's 2.3% growth; China's economy will slow to 4.8% and Japan's will slow to 0.0%.
The Thai economy in the first half of the year slowed down due to political factors and tight fiscal and monetary policies. However, the government's successful push for the 2024 economic stimulus project through state welfare cardholders and the disabled helped stimulate domestic consumption, giving the Thai economy a chance to recover in the fourth quarter, with an expected expansion of 3.5%. For the whole of 2024, the Thai economy is expected to expand by 2.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has a chance to cut interest rates by 1.0% in 2024 and 2025 to support growth. In addition, the interest rate cut will also help reduce the appreciation of the baht.
Investment strategy for Q4/2024 The market is expected to be highly volatile due to external pressures, especially the US election, where polls are still quite close, while the policies of the two candidates are very different. However, the Fed's interest rate cut will benefit emerging markets (EM) whose economies are still growing compared to developed markets (DM), while the weaker dollar will help encourage capital flows into emerging markets (EM) and Thailand. In terms of domestic factors, there are still supporting factors from the new government's policies to increase economic stimulus and confidence, allowing the SET Index to continue to adjust amid volatility. The SET Index target is estimated to adjust up and reach 1,500 points by the end of 2024 and 1,550 points in 2025.
Source: Thai News Agency