The private sector estimates that in 2024 Thailand can export 7.5 million tons of rice.

Bangkok, The Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association estimates Thai rice exports in 2024 after in 2023 Thailand exported more than 8.7 million tons, higher than the target of 8 million tons. But this year, the Ministry of Commerce It is expected to export only 7.5 million tons due to drought problems and intense competition. It is the same forecast as the private sector. Thai rice exporters emphasize that the world rice trade is fiercely competitive, especially Thailand-Vietnam will be important competitors. To occupy the market as the world's number 2 rice exporter Mr. Chukiat Opaswong, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that from information from the United States Department of Agriculture or USDA, the world's rice production volume is forecast. will be the same as last year, averaging 513 million tons, with China having the highest production at 144 million tons, followed by India with 132 million tons, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand producing s imilar to last year's, about 20 million tons, and exports are forecast. Released in 2024, this corresponds to Thailand's estimate of 7.5 million tons. It is also the world's number 2 rice exporter, which is equal to the export volume. of Vietnam at 7.5 million tons as well Second to India at 16.5 million tons, it is therefore a risk for Thailand. to maintain its position as the world's number 2 rice exporter because there is a chance that Vietnam will overtake Thailand because we are beginning to see Vietnam's rice export figures have increased significantly. Normally, exports average only 6 million tons per year. But it will be clearer from 2023 that Vietnam can export up to 8 million 1 hundred thousand tons and will start marketing it from the beginning of 2024 by opening an auction to import Indonesian rice. At the end of January, of the 500,000 tonnes, Vietnam won the bid for more than 400,000 tons, while the rest went to Pakistan and Myanmar, with Thailand unable to bid at all. Because the price of rice is higher than competitors bidding at 690 USD per ton, but Vietnam offers a price of only 655 USD per ton, a difference of up to 40 USD. And most importantly, Vietnam's rice production currently has a yield per rai as high as 970 kilograms, but Thailand can produce it. Only 450 kilograms per rai. In addition, rice marketing Through rice trading negotiations on a state-to-state basis or G to G, it is still seen as more difficult to happen. Because each country has changed the purchase of rice by using the private sector as the importer instead. and then collect import taxes To bring money to help agriculture It also has more flexibility. For example, in Thailand, if you want to sell rice on a G to G basis, it must pass the NCB and the Cabinet. It may take up to 2 months for delivery. By the matter of competition which is already high There are other risk factors. that must be followed Both exchange rate fluctuations Including India's rice export restriction policy. If there is a review to turn to exporting ri ce again. It will immediately affect the global rice market. Because the price of Indian rice is very low. And how much will the El Niño phenomenon affect production? Police Lieutenant Charoen Laothamathat President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association said: Thai rice price situation It will depend on the situation of production and export that will affect the price of rice in the country. Like the first month of this year According to the Department of Foreign Trade's rice export license, Thailand has exported more than 1 million tons, an increase of 43.96% compared to the same period last year. which if exports exceed 1 million tons for several months in a row It will definitely affect the price, while the issue that I want the government to take care of is the exchange rate. It must be stable, not volatile, and accelerate the development of the competitiveness of Thai rice. Both developing new rice varieties that the market needs Get high yield per rai To keep up with competitors Vietnam and India, who within less than 10 years have developed new rice varieties with yields per rai higher than 800 kilograms, causing exports to double. From the normal export of only 8-10 million tons per year. Currently, it has moved to 16 million tons and must be done in parallel with the development of the irrigation system. In addition, you must take care of the transportation costs. from the freight rate which is increasing many times. Currently, it has increased 4 times to over 4,000 -6,000 USD from the end of last year. Export to Europe-USA per container is 1,200 USD and continues to move up. Source: Thai News Agency