Bangkok: Analysts closely monitoring Thai GDP indicate that the Thai stock market trend is highly uncertain, both in terms of economics and politics. They recommend focusing on selling, and if it drops and continues to drop, then buy back.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Apichat Phubanjerdkul, Senior Vice President, Strategic Analysis Department, TISCO Securities Co., Ltd., revealed that from the announcement of the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2025, which grew by 3.1%, it is considered better than the analysts' original expectation of 2.9% growth. As for the figures for the whole year, the National Economic and Social Development Board has reduced the GDP growth target for 2025 to a median of 1.8%, with a range of 1.3% - 2.3% growth, from the original estimate of 2.3% - 3.3% growth, which is consistent with the figures of many agencies that have been previously revised down. TISCO expects that the GDP for the whole year will expand by 1.8%, while the overall market average expects it to grow by 2.4%.
The future trend of the Thai stock market is still highly uncertain because we do not know how much tax the US will collect from Thailand and what it will have to pay in exchange. As for new fund flows into the Thai stock market, we still do not expect much. Although there is the Thai ESGX fund to support the stock market, in the past, there has not been much purchase value. Last week, there was only 700 million baht in new money flowing in, but we still expect that there will be more money flowing in the remaining period.
In addition, MSCI has also reduced the number of Thai stocks, both in terms of adjusting out Thai stocks and reducing the weight of existing stocks. In particular, on May 30, there will be a rebalance, which will result in an outflow of 440 million US dollars. Since the beginning of the month until now, foreigners have sold almost 5 billion baht, which is a negative picture of Fund Flow during this period. After this, the overall market will focus more on economic figures, including economic figures from China and other leading countries, resulting in limited upside for the Thai stock market. Therefore, if the Thai stock market adjusts up during this period, it is advisable to sell to tighten the portfolio, wait for a drop, and then buy back.
For the government's economic stimulus policy adjustment that encourages commercial banks to reduce interest rates to help exporters, it is seen as both positive and negative. On the positive side, it will stimulate the economy better. On the negative side, it may affect the profits of the banking group, which is the group with the highest profits. If there is a negative picture, it may affect the stock market.
In addition, investors will have to keep an eye on next month. The political situation will become more intense. It is caused by the case involving Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra, making it difficult for the stock market to adjust upwards. And there is still a lack of new supporting factors. Therefore, it is better to focus on selling more. If it drops, then buy back. It is expected that the support level is at 1,180 points, the resistance level is at 1,220 and 1,230 points.