The Office of Agricultural Economics expects the agricultural GDP trend in 2024 to be in the range of -0.8 percent, down 0.2 percent compared to 2023 due to the El Niño phenomenon that caused drought in the first half of the year and the La Niña phenomenon in the second half of the year that caused flooding. Only the livestock and forestry sectors have adjusted upwards. Mr. Chanthanon Wannakhet, Secretary-General of the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE), Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, said that the agricultural economic outlook in 2024 is expected to be GDP at -0.8 percent, a decrease of 0.2 compared to 2023 due to the El Niño phenomenon that caused drought in the first half of the year and the La Niña phenomenon in the second half of the year that caused flooding. For the agricultural economy in the third quarter of 2024 (July - September 2024), it contracted by 0.7 percent compared to the same period of 2023. Some agricultural production in the third quarter was affected by the aforementi oned El Niño and La Niña. In the third quarter, there was continuous heavy rain in many areas, resulting in flash floods in the North and the Northeast. As a result, the agricultural plant and agricultural service sectors continued to contract from the second quarter. Similarly, the fisheries sector also contracted, while the livestock and forestry sectors were still able to expand. The GDP in each sector is as follows: Crops sector contracted by 0.4 percent due to the El Niño phenomenon that continued until April 2024, causing extremely hot and dry weather, affecting the cultivation and growth of some plants, resulting in a decrease in the yield of many plants. Although the El Niño phenomenon ended in June 2024, the entry into the La Niña phenomenon in September 2024 caused Thailand to face monsoons and heavy rain, resulting in floods in many areas of the North and Northeast, as well as high humidity, affecting the quality of the products and causing plant diseases and insect pests. Crops with decreased yi elds include dry season rice, cassava, rubber, durian, and longan. The dry season rice yield decreased because during the cultivation period, there was less water in reservoirs and natural water sources than last year, resulting in insufficient water resources. The government has requested cooperation to reduce the cultivation of dry season rice. Farmers in some areas have left their rice fields empty or switched to growing crops that require less water or vegetables instead. Cassava yield decreased in line with the reduced harvested area because farmers lacked seedlings due to the dry weather and intermittent rain. Good seedlings are rare and expensive. This has caused some farmers to leave their areas empty or switch to other crops, such as pineapple, rubber, sweet corn, and seed corn. In addition, the occurrence of leaf spot disease has continued, resulting in a decrease in yield per rai. Rubber: The yield has decreased because the planting areas in the South and the North are still prevalent with leaf fal l disease. In addition, some farmers in the South and Central regions have cut down old rubber trees to switch to fruit trees and oil palms. In addition, there has been heavy rain throughout the country, which has reduced the number of days for rubber tapping. Durian: The yield has decreased due to the drought, insufficient water during flowering, and during the fruiting period, there has been hot weather alternating with continuous rain, causing new shoots to sprout instead of flowering. Some flowers wither and fall off, while some of the flowers that have already bearing fruit have fallen off and been damaged. Rambutan: The yield has decreased due to the reduced area of ??standing trees due to the cutting down of old and deteriorated rambutan trees to switch to other crops that give a better return. Products with increased production include wet season rice, animal feed corn, Pattavia pineapple, oil palm, longan and mangosteen. The wet season rice increased production because there was more rainfall than l ast year, which was sufficient for cultivation. The animal feed corn increased production because of the increased rainfall, which allowed the first generation of animal feed corn to grow well. In addition, farmers have better knowledge of fertilizing, maintaining and preventing diseases, so the yield per rai has increased. The Pattavia pineapple increased production because of the increased rainfall and the good pineapple price, which has encouraged farmers to take care of it. The oil palm increased production because in 2021, the palm price was good, so farmers expanded the oil palm plantation area to replace rubber trees. The rice fields and vacant areas began to yield in 2024 for the first time. Although the dry weather last year caused some palm trees to be incomplete and produce fewer bunches, the overall production still increased. The longan increased production because the good longan price last year encouraged farmers to take care of it, resulting in more flowers and fruits than last year. The mango steen increased production because the mangosteen trees were more complete after resting and storing food last year. And the weather in the South is suitable for fruit production, so the produce is gradually coming to the market in increasing amounts. Fisheries sector contracted by 3.8 percent due to unstable weather conditions and high production costs, coupled with falling fishery product prices, causing farmers to delay production. Fishery products with reduced production include white shrimp, whose production decreased due to high production costs and low shrimp prices, coupled with slowing demand from foreign markets, causing farmers to delay releasing shrimp larvae. In addition, some shrimp farming areas were affected by the spread of black-chinned tilapia, which damaged farmers' shrimp farms, causing farmers to reduce the area they farm. Aquatic animals brought to the dock decreased production due to unstable weather conditions and rising sea temperatures, coupled with rising fuel prices, which are th e main production costs of marine fisheries, causing some operators to reduce the number of boat trips to catch aquatic animals. Nile tilapia and catfish, whose production decreased due to high fish feed costs, causing farmers to delay raising and releasing fish larvae. The agricultural service sector contracted by 0.3 percent due to the hot and dry weather at the beginning of the growing season. Many areas did not have enough water for cultivation. The government asked for cooperation to reduce the area for off-season rice planting. Some farmers therefore left the area vacant. In addition, the La Niña condition in September 2024 caused heavy rain and flooding in many areas of the North and Northeast, causing damage to crop yields and obstacles to harvesting. As a result, hiring services for soil preparation and harvesting of important crops decreased, such as main season rice, off-season rice, animal feed corn, and cassava. Livestock sector expanded by 0.9 percent due to the increase in demand for livestoc k products in line with the recovery of the domestic and international economies, coupled with farmers managing farms with standards and effectively controlling diseases, while production costs remain high. Livestock products with increased production include pigs, whose production slightly increased due to pig farms having good production standards and effectively controlling the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF). Broilers, whose production increased due to increased production to meet domestic consumption demand and the increasing demand for imported chicken meat and products from abroad. Livestock products with decreased production include eggs, whose production decreased due to measures to stabilize egg prices by reducing the number of hens in cages to make production consistent with domestic consumption demand. Raw milk, whose production decreased due to high production costs, especially the price of concentrated feed, causing farmers to suffer losses, resulting in some farmers reducing the number of c ows they raise or closing down their businesses. Forestry sector expanded by 1.2 percent due to increased production of eucalyptus, lac, and bird's nest. Eucalyptus increased in line with domestic demand for pulp and paper production, while South Korea and Japan continued to have a demand for processing into biomass fuel (wood pellets) for power plants. Lac increased in line with exports to trading partners, especially India and Japan. Bird's nest increased due to demand from both domestic and international bird's nest processing industries, especially China. Meanwhile, rubberwood decreased in line with target areas for cutting down old rubber plantations and replacing them with good rubber varieties or other economic plants by the Rubber Authority of Thailand. Charcoal decreased due to decreased exports to the Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean markets. In the third quarter, the increased rainfall has had a positive effect on overall plant growth, coupled with the promotion of the use of technology and in novation, upgrading agricultural products to standard quality, water management, increasing channels for farmers to access and use information for planning, as well as helping farmers affected by various disasters, including the domestic economy showing a tendency to expand, especially consumption and exports, resulting in increased demand for agricultural products. The Secretary-General of the Office of Agricultural Economics added that several risk factors such as weather variability, disease and insect outbreaks, which may damage production, as well as external factors such as prolonged geopolitical conflicts and strict trade barriers, which may affect the export of Thai agricultural products, must be monitored. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives will drive forward the development of the agricultural sector both in the immediate and long term. Source: Thai News Agency
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