PRISM Predicts Significant Fluctuations in 2025 Oil Prices, Averaging $70-80 per Barrel.

Bangkok: PRISM PTT Group indicates next year's oil price will fluctuate heavily, averaging $70-80/barrel. The PTT Group's oil price situation analysis team, known as PRISM, has assessed that the oil trend in 2025 will be highly volatile, with prices expected to range between 70-80 USD per barrel. This fluctuation is anticipated amid the challenge of production capacity exceeding demand by 1.3 million barrels per day. According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, highlighted these insights during the 2024 Annual Petroleum Outlook Forum seminar titled 'Regenerative Thailand with Cleanergy: Thinking ahead, driving Thailand's future with clean energy.' He emphasized the need for Thailand and ASEAN to adapt to cleaner energy sources, particularly during the energy transition period. Natural gas is deemed a key component of this transition, to be used alongside new clean energy technologies such as hydrogen, carbon capture and storage systems (CCS), and small nuclear power reactors (SMR). Despite these advancements, various energy factors that could impact the economy and society in the future require close monitoring. PRISM Experts from the PTT Group further stated that oil demand in 2025 is projected to grow between 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day. Although there are risks associated with the transition to clean energy, trade barriers, and strict trade policies, positive factors such as the easing of monetary policy and China's ongoing economic stimulus measures, along with oil usage in India, are expected to boost demand next year. The forecast also highlights the potential volatility of global oil prices in 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding geopolitical issues, US oil demand following the election, the US-China trade war, and possibly more stringent US sanctions against Iran. Despite these uncertainties, the price of Dubai crude oil is expected to remain within the 70-80 USD per barrel range. Monitoring the OPEC+ policy on increa sing crude oil production will be crucial. Furthermore, the supply of oil from non-OPEC+ sources is projected to be 1.4 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ is expected to supply 1.1 million barrels per day. This results in a total supply of 2.5 million barrels per day, against a demand trend of around 1.2 million barrels per day, leading to production capacity surpassing demand by 1.3 million barrels per day.