Bangkok: IAA highlights the negative impact of politics on Thai stocks, forecasting the SET Index to end 2025 at 1,231 points and revising the GDP target for the year to 1.87%.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Sombat Narawuttichai, Secretary-General of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), disclosed survey results from 22 analysts and mutual fund managers regarding investment perspectives in the third quarter of 2025. Analysts anticipate the GDP for 2025 to average 1.87%, a drop from the previous forecast of 2.56%. Other economic indicators include an average crude oil price of 68.65 USD per barrel and a Risk Free Rate of 2.22%, with a Stock Market Risk Premium of 7.74%.
Key factors influencing investment decisions for the remainder of 2025 include domestic interest rates and US interest rates, viewed as positive by 90.91% and 72.73% of respondents, respectively. Conversely, political instability in Thailand, domestic economic challenges, and regional tensions with Cambodia are seen as major negative influences. The survey suggests that the domestic political climate and US import tariff negotiations are critical factors to monitor in the third quarter.
Monetary policy projections reveal a consensus among 71% of respondents expecting a reduction in the policy rate from 1.50% to potentially 1.25% by the end of 2025. The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 85.43 baht, indicating a decline from previous estimates, with anticipated EPS growth at 10.45%. The SET Index is expected to close the third quarter at 1,166 points, fluctuating within a range of 1,023 to 1,267 points throughout the year.
Investment diversification is advised, allocating 11.50% to cash and short-term deposits, 20.25% to bond funds, and 33.50% to stocks or foreign stock funds. Recommendations for foreign investments include US bond funds, AI-Technology, and selective Asian markets such as China, Vietnam, India, and Korea.
Specific securities for foreign investments include AAPL80, AMD80, and NVDA80. For domestic investments, increased focus is recommended in tourism, medical, technology, and communication sectors, while reducing exposure in food and beverage, energy, and petrochemical sectors. Recommended stocks include ADVANC, BDMS, CPALL, and GULF, while caution is advised against overvalued electronics sector stocks and those with governance issues.
Analysts urge the government to support economic growth through infrastructure investments, development of New S-Curve industries and technology, and assistance for both business and public sectors. Proposed policies include corporate tax deductions, tourism stimulus, fraud control, and measures to support education and career development.