Bangkok: A Thammasat University academic believes just four months is enough for the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties to gain an advantage before the election. He said that even though they have announced they accept the "People's Party" terms, they can make changes after they become the government. He pointed out that all parties want to be in power for a long time and are not serious about amending the constitution. Instead, they hope to use their power to control state mechanisms and seize the 2016 budget through discounts, exchanges, giveaways, and bonuses to boost popularity. He is confident that the government will be short-lived due to its instability in controlling votes. He stated that Bhumtham has no authority to dissolve Parliament and that if he does so now, Pheu Thai will suffer the most.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Puravich Wattanasuk, a lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science at Thammasat University (TU), revealed that the political situation following the Constitutional Court's ruling to remove Ms. Paethongtarn Shinawatra from her position as Prime Minister has led both the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties to attempt to seize leadership in forming a government. Both parties have agreed to the People's Party's (PPC) conditions, including the dissolution of the House of Representatives within four months, holding a referendum, and amending the constitution. These conditions pave the way for the formation of a government. However, once a government is formed, all parties want to remain in power for as long as possible. Therefore, previously promised agreements can change at any time. This is similar to what happened with the Move Forward Party's tearing up of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in 2023, when it was trying to form a government and ultimately crossing the politica l divide.
"Accepting these conditions, especially regarding constitutional amendments, is merely political bargaining. The tangible evidence over the past two years shows that only the People's Party is serious about amending the constitution, while Pheu Thai is stuck at the interpretation stage, and the Bhumjaithai Party has barely seen these moves," said Mr. Puravich. "Therefore, I don't believe it will happen because I haven't seen a common intention to push for it from all political parties."
Mr. Puravich added that the upcoming government will have a very short lifespan due to political instability and fragmented voting, with no single faction able to fully control the vote. However, despite its short duration, it will be sufficient to take complete control of the state machinery, which is beneficial for future elections. All parties will want to be elected while they are in power.
"What will happen is that both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai hope to launch policies of discounts, exchanges, and giveaways to fuel their campaigns in the next election, knowing that the new government's term is short. Personally, I believe the new government will be in office by the end of September or early October, just in time for the enactment of the 2026 Budget Act. After that, there will undoubtedly be a time for disbursements and achievements to build popularity," said the Thammasat University academic.
Mr. Puravich added that if Parliament were to be dissolved at this time, the Pheu Thai Party would be most seriously injured, as public trust has been eroded since the Thai-Cambodian conflict, and the government's popularity polls have reached an all-time low. This is not to mention that many of its flagship policies have failed to achieve the desired results.
Regarding the debate over whether Mr. Phumtham Wechayachai, acting as prime minister, has the authority to dissolve parliament, Mr. Puravich stated that he personally believes it is not possible, as the constitution clearly states that the prime minister must advise the king to issue a royal decree to dissolve parliament. Currently, we do not have a prime minister, but rather have an acting prime minister. The basic political science question is whether the prime minister and the acting prime minister have equal powers. Furthermore, there has never been a case like this in Thailand, where an acting prime minister would dissolve parliament. Further research into whether there has ever been a parliamentary democracy in any country with an acting prime minister dissolving parliament during a political vacuum has not found any.
A Thammasat University academic further stated that the mechanisms embedded in the 2017 Constitution have created a loophole for what is known as legal warfare, where the law is used to attack opponents. One of these offenses is the broadly interpreted offense of gross breach of ethical standards. He asserted that Ms. Paethongtarn will not be the last to be charged, but more will follow. He has seen the power of this offense, which can easily remove two prime ministers from office. This is one example of how the 2017 Constitution has been designed to weaken the political capabilities of Thai society, leaving elected governments insufficiently stable to address the country's long-term problems.