Bangkok: Academics have voiced their perspectives on the “Paethongtarn” audio clip case, suggesting that the political outcome is poised to remain unchanged, irrespective of whether Prime Minister Paethongtarn Shinawatra survives the legal scrutiny. They highlight the challenges facing the Prime Minister’s political future and the potential impact on the Pheu Thai Party and Thai politics overall. Should the government persist, it would need to promptly deliver substantial and effective results to regain public trust.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Stithorn Thananithichot, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science, provided insights into the implications of the legal cases involving both the current Prime Minister and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Mr. Stithorn explained that the Prime Minister’s situation is straightforward; whether he remains in power or not, the political consequences will be similar. He emphasized the difficulty for the Prime Minister to continue politically, even if the court decides in his favor. The Prime Minister might have to resign or dissolve Parliament and refrain from running as the Pheu Thai Party’s candidate again.
The legal ramifications could lead to the Prime Minister’s removal from office, compelling him to retire or find another way to exit politics. Mr. Stithorn also considered the possibility of Ms. Paethongtarn’s resignation as a tactical move to preserve the Pheu Thai Party’s credibility. He noted that while the party could potentially restore confidence if allowed to stay in power, the Prime Minister’s recovery would be challenging.
In the event of a favorable court ruling, Mr. Stithorn indicated that although it may uphold Ms. Paethongtarn’s dignity, she would still bear political responsibility, and public dissatisfaction might linger. The Constitutional Court, while assessing her qualifications, might not address issues of dishonesty or serious misconduct, leaving room for further legal challenges.
Discussing the potential need for a new Prime Minister or parliamentary dissolution, Mr. Stithorn outlined two scenarios: the current Prime Minister could continue until stability is restored before resigning or dissolving Parliament, or he might immediately resign, prompting the selection of a new candidate from the Pheu Thai Party. However, the acceptance of coalition parties remains uncertain.
Mr. Stithorn remarked on the Pheu Thai government’s current setbacks, emphasizing the difficulty of sustaining power amidst challenging conditions. He suggested that dissolving Parliament and calling new elections could result in the Pheu Thai Party diminishing in size. He advocated for the government to leverage its existing power to implement policies and regain public support before elections.
Addressing the legal challenges facing Thaksin Shinawatra, Mr. Stithorn acknowledged the significant implications for both the government and the Pheu Thai Party. Thaksin’s influence remains crucial for the party’s prospects, hinging on his ability to communicate effectively and inspire public confidence. Without his active role, the Pheu Thai Party risks shrinking in future elections.
Mr. Stithorn also considered the broader political landscape, indicating that ongoing issues, including the Thai-Cambodian border conflict, continue to affect public sentiment. While some dissatisfaction persists, he believes the situation remains manageable without escalating into further unrest.
Mr. Puravich Wattanasuk from Thammasat University’s Faculty of Political Science saw the unfolding events as a turning point in Thai politics. He highlighted the enduring influence of Thaksin Shinawatra over the past two decades and the potential implications of the current legal cases on his legacy and the Pheu Thai Party’s future.
Mr. Puravich emphasized the challenges facing the current parliamentary system, noting the difficulties in maintaining effective governance amidst frequent disruptions. He expressed concerns about the Thai-Cambodian border issue and its impact on public trust in the government.
Looking ahead, Mr. Puravich anticipated a possible dissolution of Parliament and new elections, driven by legislative inefficiencies and a crisis of confidence. He underscored the importance of implementing policies that could restore public trust before elections.
Addressing the potential outcomes of the legal cases, Mr. Puravich suggested that unfavorable results could affect the Pheu Thai Party’s identity, closely tied to Thaksin. Conversely, favorable outcomes might still leave the party diminished.
Mr. Puravich projected that future elections would be influenced by nationalism, military matters, and the Thai-Cambodian situation, rather than the themes of past elections. He foresaw nationalism playing a key role in the campaign landscape.
In conclusion, both Mr. Stithorn and Mr. Puravich highlighted the complexity and uncertainty of the political situation in Thailand. They underscored the need for strategic actions to navigate the challenges facing the Pheu Thai Party and the broader political landscape, with elections potentially reshaping the future dynamics.