Bangkok: The Oil Fund projects a slight increase in oil prices during the latter half of the year as global economies, particularly China, experience incomplete growth while oil supply is set to rise. The Oil Fund has resumed its collection activities following the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict and expects a positive fund status by year-end, with a new crisis plan to be introduced within the month.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Pornchai Chirakulpaisan, Director of the Policy and Planning Office at the Oil Fund Office, indicated that oil prices might see a slight uptick in the year's final quarter due to winter demand in the United States and Europe. He highlighted three main factors influencing global oil prices: economic conditions, increased oil supply from OPEC and OPEC+, and ongoing geopolitical tensions that warrant close monitoring.
The recent 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran led to a rapid increase in global crude oil prices, particularly affecting diesel. The Oil Fund utilized its rate mechanism to stabilize domestic retail prices, preventing public impact. Measures included reducing diesel collection rates from 2.40 baht per liter to a compensation of 0.65 baht per liter, maintaining retail prices below 32 baht per liter. Despite the financial strain on the Oil Fund, with diesel expenses reaching approximately 40.75 million baht daily, the easing conflict and normalization of oil prices have allowed the Fund to resume collections. Currently, diesel and gasoline groups generate daily incomes of about 57.41 million baht and 96.17 million baht, respectively. As of July 13, 2025, the Oil Fund's negative balance stands at 31,588 million baht, with expectations for a positive turnaround by year's end.
The Oil Fund recognizes the differing impacts of the Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, which have provided valuable lessons for enhancing management strategies and prudency in Oil Fund measures. A review of the oil crisis plan is underway, focusing on pricing appropriateness for oil and LPG, with a proposal to be submitted to the NBTC board this month.
The Ministry of Energy is actively monitoring global situations, particularly those in the Red Sea and other regions potentially affecting energy prices. The Ministry has established a special committee, led by Mr. Sarawut Kaewtatip, Director-General of the Department of Energy Business, with Mr. Pornchai Chirakulpaisan as a member, to manage the procurement of fuel and LNG efficiently in response to the Middle East crisis and other risk factors.