FTI Says Trump 2.0 Policy Puts Heavy Pressure on Global Economy.

Kriangkrai': The Trump 2.0 policy is putting heavy pressure on the global economy, resulting in high economic volatility. Mr. Kriangkrai Thienukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), discussed the 'Global Energy Situation after the USA Election' at the 2024 Annual Petroleum Outlook Forum, highlighting the potential impacts of President-elect Donald Trump's policies. According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Kriangkrai expressed concerns that Trump's 'Make America Great Again' approach would exacerbate economic volatility due to inconsistencies in economic and foreign policy implementation. The policy could accelerate the polarization of economic power, slowing global trade and prompting the relocation of production bases stemming from the America First policy. Additionally, a resurgence of trade and tech wars is anticipated to be more severe, increasing export costs due to import tariff adjustments in the US and an influx of Chinese goods competing in other markets. The US is expected to implement stricter trade barriers against countries with trade surpluses, accusing them of being Chinese production bases, which could delay global warming resolution efforts and shift the net-zero target. For Thailand, Trump's policies could impact international trade as Thailand ranks 12th in countries with a trade surplus from the US, approximately 20 billion. While Thailand will be closely monitored, it may also benefit from the opportunity to export to the US due to China's trade barriers. Simultaneously, a stronger dollar could enhance Thai exports but raise importer costs, with more Chinese products, like electric trains, entering the Thai market. In terms of investment, there has been a noticeable shift of investment bases to Thailand. Energy-wise, increased fossil fuel production is expected to lower costs to around 60 US dollars per barrel, affecting Thailand's energy prices in the short term. The withdrawal from the Paris Agreement may reduce short-term pressure on Thai export businesses to adjust carbon d ioxide emissions, although it could hinder the progress towards clean energy goals. Delays in implementing the Inflation Reduction and Clean Competition Acts may slow Thailand's low-carbon economy advancement, affecting long-term competitiveness. Policies promoting small nuclear power and solar cells, while reducing wind energy, hydrogen, and CCS subsidies, could present an opportunity for Thai industries to export solar panels to the US. Negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war might positively impact Thailand by increasing oil and natural gas supplies, lowering crude oil and LNG prices short-term. Despite these challenges, Mr. Kriangkrai emphasized Thailand's need to capitalize on geopolitical opportunities, stressing the importance of sustainability and green initiatives. He also proposed establishing a Joint Public-Private Sector Committee to address energy issues, advocating for comprehensive input and policy suggestions from the private sector to the National Energy Policy Committee. This proposal h as been ongoing for two years and will continue to be pursued until successful.