Bangkok: EXIM BANK has indicated that Thai exports show signs of slowing down in the third quarter of 2025, amidst concerns surrounding the ongoing trade war and global economic uncertainty.
According to Thai News Agency, the Business Research Department of the Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM BANK) released the latest Thailand Export Leading Index (EXIM Index) for the next three months, as of Q2 2025, registering at 100.5, a decline from 102.5 in Q1, marking the lowest level in six quarters. This decline reflects significant pressure on Thai exports due to the global economy’s uncertainties and the impact of Trump’s tariff measures, along with a sluggish Thai manufacturing sector and declining export prices and consumer confidence.
EXIM BANK also revealed that despite some recent improvements in trade relations, such as the temporary ceasefire between the United States and China in reducing import tariffs, the situation remains uncertain. These developments pose potential downside risks for Thai exports throughout the latter half of 2025, amplified by pressures from multiple dimensions including slowing economies of major trading partners, a stagnating Thai manufacturing sector, pressured export prices, and fragile global consumer confidence.
One dimension of concern is the slowing economies of major trading partners, particularly the United States and China, which are key markets for Thai exports. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of both nations fell into contraction territory in April 2025, hinting at further economic slowdown. Additionally, US GDP contracted in Q1 for the first time in 12 quarters, intensifying fears of reduced demand.
The Thai manufacturing sector also faces challenges, with the Industrial Production Index (MPI) having contracted for five consecutive months by March 2025 and capacity utilization rates remaining below 60%. These issues are compounded by increased competition from Chinese products and rising logistics costs due to heightened demand for shipping containers.
Export prices are under pressure from lackluster demand and increased global supply, with world oil prices falling below $70 per barrel and agricultural prices declining due to increased supply. This has led to lower production and transportation costs but also diminished export values for agricultural products and oil-related goods.
Finally, global consumer confidence remains fragile, with indices declining in several countries, including China, Europe, and Japan. Concerns over stagflation and uncertainty related to Trump’s tax measures further exacerbate the situation, posing challenges for Thai exports in the third quarter of 2025.
In response, EXIM BANK has outlined strategies for entrepreneurs to navigate these uncertainties, including maintaining close partnerships, utilizing foreign exchange risk hedging tools, exploring new markets, and staying informed to adjust strategies promptly. The bank has also implemented measures to support affected Thai entrepreneurs, such as financial assistance, export clinics, and risk prevention tools, to help them adapt and achieve sustainable growth.