Bangkok: Economists recommend the new cabinet to stimulate the domestic economy to recover, attract investor confidence, and expand investment in the private sector. Dr. Montree Sokatiyanurak, an economist at the Faculty of Public Administration, National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), said that the new cabinet reshuffle this time, the money market, the capital market, the private sector, and foreign investors accept that it is somewhat positive psychology. However, the market expects new policies from several important economic ministries. It is admitted that many ministers come from local MPs, so they must show their skills and push the policies that the government has announced to see tangible results because economic performance and the people's livelihoods are very important matters.
According to Thai News Agency, foreign investors and the domestic private sector want to see the government be stable before deciding to expand investment or make new investments. The new Cabinet must therefore give importance to investor confidence because the Thai economic problem still relies on exports, which account for 78 percent of GDP, while domestic consumption accounts for only 28 percent. It also relies on foreign FDI investment and private Thai investment to drive the economy amid the trade war and the slowdown of the global economy.
After the World Bank predicted that global GDP would grow by 2 percent from the previous 3 percent, the lowest in 17 years, predicted that Thailand's GDP would grow by 1.7 percent, the IMF predicted that Thailand's GDP would grow by 1.8 percent, the NESDB predicted that Thailand's GDP would grow by 1.8 percent, Moosedy's predicted that Thailand would grow by 2.0 percent, and the MPC predicted that the Thai economy would expand by 2 percent. When the global economy slowed down, it was a big task for the new Minister of Commerce to urgently generate income from exports through various measures to push the Thai economy. It was seen that Mr. Chatuporn Buruspat, who used to be an executive from the former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, if he set up a team of consultants, brought in experts to work, and proceeded with FTA negotiations with many countries, it was hoped that he would be able to generate more income from exports.
Dr. Thanawat Polvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that the new cabinet must create economic results because it is considered an important issue. When the Prime Minister also holds the Ministry of Culture, it is considered that the country's leader is pushing tourism through the soft power policy, which is another important issue to watch. Meanwhile, most of the economic team remains the same because only the Ministry of Commerce has changed. By the end of this year, the economy must recover as quickly as possible. As for trade issues, we have to wait and see what the outcome will be when Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira negotiates import taxes with the United States. When the United States shows no intention of extending the 90-day deadline with any country, if Thailand is taxed the least, it will have a positive effect on exports.
The new cabinet must also accelerate the 157 billion baht economic stimulus project through several projects to develop infrastructure in several provinces to distribute income to local areas as much as possible. While all ministries supervising state enterprises and having investment budgets must accelerate the disbursement of investment funds into the system as soon as possible in the third quarter through economic stimulus projects. It is hoped that the 2016 budget, when it is considered by the parliament after the new cabinet comes to drive it, will be used in the fourth quarter of 2015. In addition, the finance minister is preparing to propose the name of the new BOT governor for the cabinet to consider soon. It is expected that this will be another mechanism for both the finance ministry and the BOT to jointly drive the country's economy to grow through a relaxed monetary policy with low interest rates to allow banks to lend more to the economic system, in coordination with fiscal policy. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce believes that this will allow Thailand's GDP to grow by 1.5-2 percent so that the new cabinet can jointly push the original policy to see results. However, there is still a risk of a global trade war. When it is a coalition government from the original coalition parties, investment projects and budget allocations will not change much. The parliament must push the 2016 budget through the parliament.
Foreign investors currently view Thailand in two ways: What are the key driving factors? Thailand's competitive potential is not yet outstanding. The '8 Visions IGNITE THAILAND' policy has not yet shown clear results. In the next 5 years, the IMF predicts that Thailand's GDP will grow by only 3 percent, compared to the government's plan to grow Thailand's GDP by 4-5 percent. When Thailand enters an aging society, the Thai workforce will start to decrease due to the negative birth rate. Human resource development is a long-term picture that is not yet outstanding. These are important factors that foreigners decide to expand their investments and turn to invest in neighboring countries.