Bangkok: DBS Bank assesses that the global economy in the second half of 2025 will still face many uncertainties, including US trade policy, high public debt, and interest rate pressure. It recommends that investors adjust their portfolio diversification strategies, manage risks carefully, and focus on holding safe assets. Meanwhile, short-term economic factors must still be closely monitored in the third quarter.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Edwin Tan, Market Head DBS, Thailand and Philippines, revealed that in the second half of this year, the global market is still highly volatile due to geopolitical factors, elections in major powers, and increasing public debt, especially in the United States, where the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that debt may reach 118% of GDP by 2035.
'DBS continues to recommend the 'Barbell Strategy', which is a balanced investment between assets with potential for return and safe assets, especially holding 5% of the portfolio in gold and investing in Liquid+ funds,' said Mr. Edwin. Mr. Wey Fook Hou, Chief Investment Office, DBS Bank, stated that the US trade policy under the concept of 'Beautiful Tariff War' remains a factor of pressure in the medium term, while the US itself is facing rapidly increasing fiscal costs from interest rates that remain high.
DBS sees investment opportunities in the second half of the year still in the high-potential technology sector and emerging markets in Asia, especially China and India, which still have strong growth rates of the middle class and manufacturing sector.
In the DBS CIO Market Outlook for Q3/2025 report, DBS's research team also emphasized that the global economic outlook for the next three months remains "unclear". Investors face multiple risks, such as delays in interest rate cuts, US policy uncertainty, and global asset price volatility.
DBS therefore recommends that investors maintain a "neutral" weighting in stocks and focus on proactive risk management, with key approaches including gold (5%) as a volatility hedge, global mixed funds for risk diversification, Liquid+ to maintain liquidity, and high-quality debt instruments such as government bonds or investment grade credit.
DBS does not recommend 'Overweight' stocks in the short term as many fundamental factors have not clearly recovered. At the same time, it emphasizes 'defensive portfolio management' to accommodate unexpected volatility.
'Investors should focus on asset quality, diversify their risks, and keep a close eye on macroeconomic policies, especially the US fiscal policy,' said Mr. Way.