Chonburi, CIMB Thai Bank cuts Thailand’s 2024 GDP to 2.3%, expecting the MPC to cut interest rates twice to 2.0%. At the end of this year there is a chance of seeing the baht depreciate. Level 37 baht/US dollar If the 500 billion baht digital wallet arrives this year, it may push GDP up by 0.5%.
Mr. Amornthep Chawala, Executive Vice President, Research Office, CIMB Thai Bank, revealed that CIMB Thai Bank has lowered the Thai economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.3% from the previous 3.1% due to factors Slowing private consumption Delayed government spending and the export sector that is still growing less than expected. Because the world economy is still slowing down Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is not meeting the needs of the world market. However, it is seen that the tourism sector is still a driving force for the Thai economy. It is estimated that there will be 34 million foreign tourists throughout the year.
In this regard, the economic expansion must be assessed quarter on quarter. It is expec
ted that the 1st quarter of 2024 will grow less than 1% compared to the 1st quarter of 2023 and when the government budget is disbursed in the middle of this year. It is expected that the economy will accelerate again in the 3rd and 4th quarters, during which time we will have to rely on monetary policy to help support the economy. It is expected that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will reduce the policy interest rate 2 times this year from 2.50% to 2.0%, which the first time is expected to be seen at the next MPC meeting in April. down 0.25% and it is believed that there will be a reduction in the economic growth forecast this year as well. As a result, the attractiveness of Thai assets has decreased. This caused an expansion of both the stock and bond markets. It is expected that at the end of this year there will be a chance to see the baht weaken to the level of 37 baht/US dollar.
However, if the 500 billion baht digital wallet policy happens within this year It should result in GDP increasing by 0.
5%. If GDP is to be stimulated to move above 3%, it will have to rely on fiscal policy, investment, and long-term economic restructuring. Emphasizing that the policy interest rate cut is only to support the economy. This is because the Thai economy has long-term structural problems that must be urgently resolved.
Source: Thai News Agency