Bangkok: The Bank of Thailand (BOT) suggests that the "Half-Half Plus" scheme, which has garnered a high number of users, could potentially elevate GDP growth to over 2.2% by 2025.
According to Thai News Agency, the BOT has assessed various government measures, including support for tourism, which are anticipated to stimulate economic activity at the end of the year. The Thai economy experienced a slowdown in the third quarter of 2025, largely due to challenges in the industrial and investment sectors. However, a recovery was noted in September 2025, primarily driven by tourism and electronic exports.
Ms. Chayawadee Chaianan, Assistant Governor, Corporate Relations Group and Spokesperson for the BOT, and Ms. Pranee Sudthasri, Senior Director, Macroeconomics Department, BOT, jointly reported on the economic and financial situation for the third quarter and September 2025. The overall economy experienced a deceleration compared to the previous quarter, attributed to a decline in industrial production following temporary shutdowns. This led to a decrease in related service sector activities. Demand-side growth also slowed, with a 1.0% reduction in private investment and a 0.5% decrease in foreign tourist receipts. Nonetheless, there was a 0.7% increase in goods exports, particularly electronics.
In September, the economy showed signs of improvement. Industrial production increased as temporary factors eased, subsequently boosting service sector activities such as trade and transportation. Foreign demand expanded with a 5.8% rise in foreign tourists and a 12.6% increase in tourist receipts, especially from short-haul tourists. Goods exports, excluding gold, grew by 0.9%, driven by electronic exports. However, domestic demand remained sluggish, with a 4.5% drop in investment and a 0.8% decrease in private consumption.
The third quarter saw a negative general inflation rate of 0.74%, influenced by fresh food and energy prices, while core inflation stayed positive. The labor market remained stable, and the current account balance showed a surplus. In September, the general inflation rate slightly declined from the previous month, as energy inflation decreased. Core inflation also fell, partly due to promotions on food orders and personal care items. The labor market continued to be stable, and the current account surplus was supported by the trade balance.
The Thai economy is showing recovery signs, aided by the resumption of industrial production, which has positively impacted the service sector and exports, particularly electronics. The tourism sector and domestic demand are bolstered by government economic stimuli. However, the recovery of industrial production, US import tariffs, tourism sector developments, and government economic measures require continued monitoring.
The BOT's economic forecast for 2025, predicting 2.2% growth, already includes the "Half-Half Plus" scheme and improved import accessibility from the US, rising to 99% from 90%. The impact of the "Half-Half Plus" scheme remains to be seen, as higher-than-expected spending could lead to further growth.
Regarding increased US product imports, such as soybeans and corn for animal feed, the government has implemented measures to manage imports during Thailand's off-harvest season, minimizing impact on local farmers.
Addressing questions about the export sector's growth relative to other ASEAN countries, the BOT suggests that the growth is not entirely due to transshipment, as there is no clear announcement on product criteria. The increased exports are attributed to a rising trend in electronic exports.
The BOT also surveyed business operators about their fourth-quarter outlook. They anticipate improvement compared to the previous quarter, driven by government measures enhancing confidence and spending during the year-end festival season, including the "Half-Half Plus" scheme. Tourism-related businesses are expanding with the peak tourist season's onset and advance bookings from international tourists. Government measures like the "Tiew Thai" (Half-Half) and "Tiew Dee Mee Kuen" (Good Return) schemes are expected to further support tourism in Thailand.