Bangkok: The market is keenly observing the upcoming release of Thailand's Q2 2025 GDP and July 2025 export figures. Kasikorn Research Center highlights the importance of these data points along with the anticipated statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman. The baht is forecasted to trade in a range of 32.10-32.80 baht per dollar. The Thai stock index is projected to encounter support levels at 1,240 and 1,215 points and resistance levels at 1,280 and 1,300 points.
According to Thai News Agency, last week saw the baht achieving a three-week high of 32.24 baht per dollar due to selling pressure on the dollar amid speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed at its September FOMC meeting. The baht's upward trend was further bolstered by the Monetary Policy Committee's decision to reduce the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.50% midweek. However, towards the week's end, the baht weakened in line with regional currencies as the dollar rebounded, supported by a higher-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI).
In the current week (August 18-22), Kasikornbank anticipates the baht to trade within the designated range. Kasikorn Research Center advises market participants to focus on Thailand's Q2 GDP figures and July export data, the Fed Chairman's address at the annual symposium, foreign fund flows, and global gold prices. Pertinent US economic figures include the housing market index, the Philadelphia Fed's August business outlook survey, July housing starts and existing home sales, the minutes from the July 29-30 Fed meeting, and weekly jobless claims.
Meanwhile, the Thai stock market index touched a six-month high of 1,283.55 points midweek last week, propelled by expectations of the Fed's potential interest rate cut in September and the MPC's rate cut decision. The index, however, experienced a decline towards the week's end due to profit-taking by investors.
This week, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. identifies the Thai stock index's support levels at 1,240 and 1,215 points, with resistance pegged at 1,280 and 1,300 points. The Kasikorn Research Center continues to monitor key factors such as Thailand's Q2 GDP data, the Fed Chairman's speech at the annual Jackson Hole meeting, and foreign capital movement. Key US economic data to be observed include housing starts, existing home sales for July, preliminary August Manufacturing and Services PMI, Fed meeting minutes, and weekly jobless claims.