Kasikorn bank: Kasikorn Bank revealed that this week the market is still waiting for the results of the negotiations with the United States and the name of the new BOT governor, as well as the performance of banks in the second quarter of 68. It sees the baht in the range of 32.30-32.80 baht per dollar and expects the Thai stock index to have support at 1,160 and 1,125 points, with resistance at 1,230 and 1,255 points.
According to Thai News Agency, Kasikorn Research Center revealed that last week, the baht briefly strengthened at the beginning of the week before weakening later, contrasting with the US dollar, which strengthened and then surpassed 32.40 baht per dollar at the end of the week. This movement followed the increase in global gold prices and the appreciation of the yuan and other Asian currencies. However, the support for the dollar slowed down after having already responded to better-than-expected US economic figures, such as retail sales and weekly jobless claims. The market closed on July 18 at 32.39 baht per dollar, compared to 32.51 baht per dollar on the previous Friday, July 11.
This week, from July 21 to 25, Kasikornbank projects the baht to move within a range of 32.30-32.80 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors to monitor, including US trade negotiations with trading partners, the nomination of the next BOT governor to the Cabinet, Thailand's June export figures, foreign fund flows, and the direction of global gold prices. Significant US economic figures include existing home sales, new home sales, and June's durable goods orders, along with preliminary July manufacturing and service sector PMI, and weekly jobless claims. Additionally, the market is waiting to track the stance on US interest rates by the Fed chairman and senior Fed officials, China's LPR announcement, the ECB meeting results, and preliminary July PMI data for the UK, the Eurozone, and Japan.
While the Thai stock index rose almost all week, jumping more than 80 points amid hopes that Thailand will reach a trade deal with the United States, banking stocks gained only slightly. Investors assessed that the Q2/2025 performance, which is being gradually announced, may not grow much, coupled with concerns over potential interest rate cuts following the news about the nomination of a new BOT governor. At the end of the week, the index achieved a more than 2-month high of 1,210.01 points, driven by buying power from foreign groups.
This week, from July 21 to 15, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. sees the Thai stock index having support levels at 1,160 and 1,125 points, while resistance levels are at 1,230 and 1,255 points. The Kasikorn Research Center highlights important factors to watch, including Thailand's June export figures, the second-quarter 2025 performance of Thai companies, especially the banking sector, issues regarding US retaliatory tariffs, statements by Fed officials, and foreign capital trends. Key US economic data include existing home sales, new home sales, June's durable goods orders, the preliminary July manufacturing and service sector PMI, and weekly jobless claims. Other foreign economic factors include the ECB meeting, and the preliminary July manufacturing and service sector PMIs for Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK.